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predictions.
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Mar 18th, 2008 at 12:22am |
I've compiled your predictions and my predictions. I need to remind you that this is not endorsement, this is not my wish list; rather, this is a read on what is going to happen over the next 3 days. I have no particular confidence in the percentages, though I am reasonably confident about the winners I chose.
A total of 19 readers sent me predictions; I've presented them in graph form to save time and space. Not everyone filled out every position. (Update: I've received several submissions since; I'll include those when I calculate a winner, but I'm not editing the post.)
I really have no grand language to put around this, so, uh, here they are.
Voter Turnout
I have it at 21.3%; the average of the predictions was 20.9%, the maximum was 28%, and the minimum was 13%.
President
Me: Larkin. I have it Larkin (40%), Gault (35%), Hillman (20%), Debogorski (5%).
Peanut Gallery: Larkin. 12 said Larkin, 6 said Gault, one said Hillman.
It looks like we'll most likely have a woman as president, for the first time since Galarneau was elected in 2002 (she served until October 2003).
Everyone has Larkin and Gault very close; the following picture demonstrates this, though it is hard to see much more. The third from the last column (in all images) is what the Facebook application predicts.
VP Internal
Me: Boyle, 61%-39% over Jones.
Peanut Gallery: Boyle, say 16, compared to 2 who say Jones. Most call it closer than I do (57%-43%, on average).
Boyle ran the better campaign, by far. Jones, despite a strong base of support, has alienated some members of the Young Liberals, a group likely to vote. They are splitting the DSU insider vote, and my read of the landscape is Boyle is coming out ahead there. The only question for me is by how much.
VP Student Life
Me: Krista, 54-46 over Kris.
Peanut Gallery: Tied. 9 say Kris, 9 say Krista. Interestingly, 7 have it within 5%, but 9 are predicting margins of victory greater than 10%. It covers the spectrum - some have Kris by 40, others Krista by 40.
Hard call, but I think Krista takes it. She's run a good campaign, she's demonstrated she is qualified to hold the job, and besides that she'll benefit from the 'lawl need change' vote and frankly she's young, female, and cute. For the record, every time in the last 5 years a woman has been in this race, a woman has won.
Senate
Me: Snow (32), Fraser (20), Christofi (17), Mason (17), Hughes (14). I'm taking the easy way out and putting Mason and Christofi at a tie. Whether or not Mason gets a vote depends on Sexton turnout.
Peanut Gallery: First, everyone seemed to have a REALLY hard time getting 5 numbers to add up to 100 (I fixed them). Second, how the hell do I present these results? Ok. 13 people made predictions. 13 think Snow gets a seat, and 12 think he takes the largest number of votes. 12 think Christofi gets a seat, and 9 think he comes in second. 7 think Fraser gets a seat. 6 think Mason gets a seat. 1 thinks Hughes gets a seat.
HSA Referendum
Me: Yes, 68-32%.
Peanut Gallery: Yes. On average, 65-35, but it ranged from 87.5% yes to 51% yes.
I'm fairly certain it is going to pass, but not certain by how much. The immediacy of advocating in Halifax will help it with voters at large, who historically have been far more likely to vote no in referenda than DSUers are. However, its support among DSU insiders is not unanimous. In the end, I just picked some numbers.
Comments:
Christofi says:
[Mar 18th @ 03:17pm]
The reason why the Senate numbers didn't add up to 100% is because you can vote for multiple people.
Hopefully when you say you 'fixed' the numbers, you meant to say you did the following:
1) Aggregated the predicted support for each candidate
2) Added the percentages together (which would be >100%)
3) Adjusted them proportionately so they all add to 100%
Adjusting the numbers proportionately BEFORE aggregating them would be a mistake.
Christofi says:
[Mar 18th @ 03:28pm]
1) above should be 'aggregated AND averaged the predicted support for each individual candidate'
Anonymous Coward says:
[Mar 18th @ 03:46pm]
I could have sworn there were comments there a minute ago...
Not that I'm checking for updates obsessively...
mike says:
[Mar 18th @ 03:47pm]
You seem to have misunderstood. Predictors were asked to make their guesses in terms of percentage of the votes received. No matter how many votes you can make for a given position, you can still get at maximum 100% of the votes cast. That's the fun thing about percentages. The numbers were adding up to 90, 105, etc.
I'm not sure what your point about aggregation was, it's kind of incoherent. Regardless, it's pretty basic math, I think I'm ok without the tutorial.
Christofi says:
[Mar 18th @ 03:58pm]
Aha. I interpreted your poll as asking to predict the total percentage of supporters per candidate. Carry on.
mike says:
[Mar 18th @ 04:11pm]
YOUR APOLOGY IS ACCEPTED.
:P
Jenny Cooper says:
[Mar 18th @ 08:23pm]
Ah Mike my lad! So nice to read your always witty, wonderful and detailed election coverage. I am here to offer some words of comfort to all the future losers that will be a bunch of the guys and gals on these pages. And yes, I whole heartedly use that word as I was one myself for VPI last year, and it was the BEST thing that could have happened to me. I got a super sweet job with the Canadian Opera Company in Toronto( My DAL acting degree actually got me somewhere!), have a kick ass boyfriend and all and all, having a great time. That being said, from what I hear, Rosalie is doing an AWSOME job, as is the rest of the exec, and the DSU also offers amazing oppritunites with these elections. But truly, it was my time to move on out of that glorious bubble of DAL, but if you don't hear your name called on Thursday night, grab a beer, hug your friends, shed a tear or two and then get on with things. Losing could be the best thing that happenend to you! Good luck all candidates!!!!!
Now, I am going to cry into my Dalhousie Alumni newsletter.....
( but did I mention I now dry my tears with $50 bills?);=)
Best,
Jenny " I get paid to wear makeup and costumes" Cooper
AEB says:
[Mar 18th @ 09:10pm]
I would like to second Jenny's comments. Seriously, most of the candidates would do a great job in the position they have chosen to run for, but at the end of the day losing is not the end of the world. It's a great opportunity but there are plenty of other opportunities out there. I think losing is the best thing that could have happened for me, and not just because of all the free beer people were kind enough to buy for me at the Grawood after the results were announced...
Gregorian says:
[Mar 18th @ 09:42pm]
Were you passionate about making change in the Union though? Or were you just running for the experience and the job title?
AEB says:
[Mar 18th @ 11:00pm]
I cannot speak for Jenny but yes, I was... which is why I stay involved and informed and have continued to be passionate about everything I have been honored to be involved in since.
Jenny Cooper says:
[Mar 19th @ 12:29am]
I always have been whole heartedly behind the constant growth and improvement of the DSU... But there is only one person that can be elected for each poisition! Since I have faith in the student body to elect someone to do the job, I can rest well at night knowing the old DSU was taken care of this year. I also agree with ABE, and truly, when you get out of the student lifestyle, student politics are no longer top of your personal commitments, no matter how much you cared at the time you were involved. Just how life goes, kids!
Jenny Cooper says:
[Mar 19th @ 12:30am]
Apologies; ABE= AEB
jae-con says:
[Mar 19th @ 06:05pm]
Don't feel bad Mike, Christofi once gave me a nice little lecture on the gravitational constant. Damn me for forgetting what capital G stood for in the physics world...
BrentCooper says:
[Mar 20th @ 03:21pm]
I would just like to say that my life has less love in it, because the damned Toronto monster stole my Jenny away. I want you back Jenny.
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