|
betting pool results
|
Mar 24th, 2008 at 01:20am |
Sorry for the delay, I was having trouble getting electrons into my electronics. The problem is solved; here now, the betting pool results.
... wow man, did I ever get smacked around. I called VP SL wrong, and was off by enough on all of the margins to feel ashamed. And Senate... wow, my margins were nowhere near the studied indifference voters displayed toward the candidates, and I called one winner wrong. Luckily for me, most other people did just as poorly.
To calculate the results, I took the official results from www.dsu.ca, removed the spoiled votes, and calculated the percentages. I then subtracted the guesses from the actuals. For 2 candidate races, I took the difference between the pundit's guess for the winner, and the winner's actual results. This was the total error. As I do for all >2 candidate races every year, I calculated all of the differences, summed them, and then divided the total error by 2 to prevent the greater room for error from skewing the results.
The overall winner is "Anonymous #2". Congratulations... they didn't enter a name, so I don't even know who they are. Chris 'No One Will Ever Live Up To My Accomplishments' Ide placed second, and I somehow came in third, but I don't deserve it. All those with total error under 100 are shown here.
| Name | Total Error |
|---|
| Anon 2 | 39.8 | | Chris I | 42.1 | | MikeSmit.com | 46.8 | | Keith S | 47.2 | | Will D | 49.7 | | Anon 1 | 51.9 | | Election farce | 52.9 | | Jae-Con | 56.8 | | Mike P | 70.4 | | Eric S | 71.3 | | AEB | 72.8 | | DalStudent FTW | 75.8 | | Lisa B. | 76.9 | | Facebook App | 77.8 | | effdemocracy | 91.5 | | Malcolm X | 92.1 |
President
Amusingly, the Facebook application predicted this result, almost exactly. The best individual was C Ide. I ranked a dismal 11th, with total error of 11.74 (mostly due to my optimism regarding Hillman). Worst error was 60.
| Rank | Name | Error |
|---|
| 1 | Facebook App | 3.5 | | 2 | C Ide | 5 | | 3 | Jae-Con | 5.6 | | 4 | Anon 1 | 6.2 | | 5 | Will D | 6.3 | | 11 | MikeSmit.com | 11.74 |
VP Internal
Eric S called this to within .2%, well done. Anon 2 also did very well. In fact, most pundits did very well, with 10 guesses being within 3%. That was enough to push me to 15th. Clearly I had no idea what I was talking about. Worst was 22.
The Facebook app again called it to within 2.1%; in fact, the Facebook app did well for three exec positions (best overall), but was wildly off for both the Senate and the Referendum.
| Rank | Name | Error |
|---|
| 1 | Eric S | 0.2 | | 2 | Anon 2 | 0.8 | | 3 | Will D | 1.8 | | 4 | Keith S | 1.8 | | 5 | Malcolm X | 1.8 | | 6 | Facebook | 2.1 | | 15 | MikeSmit.com | 7.8 |
VP Student Life
I called this one completely wrong, which put me at 15th. I wasn't alone, though, a lot of pundits had Ali winning. Worst error was 28%.
| Rank | Name | Error |
|---|
| 1 | Keith S | 0.61 | | 2 | Anon 2 | 0.61 | | 3 | Jae-Con | 2.4 | | 4 | Anon 1 | 2.6 | | 5 | AEB | 5.6 | | 15 | MikeSmit.com | 13.3 |
Senate
Mike P gets it within 6, and getting it within 11 is good enough to get me 4th. Finally, a top 5 finish for me!
The worst error here was 78.
| Rank | Name | Error |
|---|
| 1 | Mike P | 6.0 | | 2 | Chris I | 9.8 | | 3 | Eric S | 9.9 | | 4 | MikeSmit.com | 10.8 | | 5 | AEB | 12.6 |
HSA Referendum
This is the only race where I actually came close, and its the referendum, which is why I say I don't deserve the third place overall... seriously boring race to call. That said, the worst guess was off by 40%.
| Rank | Name | Error |
|---|
| 1 | Election farce | 1.0 | | 2 | Anon 2 | 1.0 | | 3 | effdemocracy | 1.0 | | 4 | MikeSmit.com | 3.0 |
Comments:
John Hillman says:
[Mar 24th @ 01:48am]
You know, I was going to warn you against putting that much faith in me when I saw you had me at 20%, but I figured it would probably be in violation of one of the elections rules.
To be fair, I think you might have come closer to the 20% mark if you we're only looking at people who had a chance to hear me/ see me / know of my existence (IE: Your readers, who you probably took into consideration when making your predictions), but the low turnout combined with the efficient campaign machines of my opponents definitely skewed the numbers against you.
If I ever run again, I'll be sure to fill you in on how badly I expect to have my ass handed to me before the ban on campaigning sets in. :-)
mike says:
[Mar 24th @ 02:57am]
Curse those campaign rules!
But come on, where were all of the "We need change!" voters? Have we finally disillusioned them enough that they'll stop cursing us with the occasional winning candidate who hasn't already inhaled the DSU kool-aid?
Dal Alum says:
[Mar 24th @ 11:01am]
As an alum, I don't get a vote. However based purely on your campaign and reading here I'd of thrown a vote for you Hillman.
Till Next Year says:
[Mar 26th @ 05:27am]
Well...this concludes another election. I guess we'll all be back here next year and Mike's bandwidth can spread its legs out and relax.
|
